Wednesday, March 21, 2007

The Islander's First Round Pick.

The Islanders could pick anywhere from 11th-17th in the upcoming draft (if they miss the playoffs or go out in the first round). Let's take a look at the quality of players that have been drafted in these positions from 2001-2004 (2005 and 2006 are moot, it's too soon to tell whether or not these players will have an impact).

Legend: Impact Player - NHL Regular - BUST - Too Soon To Tell

2001:

11 Phoenix Fredrik Sjostrom
12 Nashville Dan Hamhuis
13 Edmonton Ales Hemsky
14 Calgary Chuck Kobasew
15 Carolina IGOR KNYAZEV
16 Vancouver R.J. Umberger
17 Toronto Carlo Colaiacovo

2002:

11 Buffalo Keith Ballard
12 Washington Steve Eminger
13 Washington Alexander Semin
14 Mtl. Canadiens Chris Higgins
15 Edmonton JESSE NIINIMAKI
16 Ottawa JAKUB KLEPIS
17 Washington Boyd Gordon

2003:

11 Philadelphia Jeff Carter
12 NY Rangers HUGE JESSIMAN
13 Los Angeles Dustin Brown
14 Chicago Brent Seabrook
15 NY Islanders Robert Nilsson
16 San Jose Steve Bernier
17 New Jersey Zach Parise

2004:

11 Los Angeles Lauri Tukonen
12 Minnesota A.J. Thelen
13 Buffalo Drew Stafford
14 Edmonton Devan Dubnyk
15 Nashville Alexander Radulov
16 NY Islanders PETTERI NOKELAINEN
17 St. Louis Marek Schwarz G

2001 to 2004 mid range first round draft results:

Impact players: 9/23* = 39%
NHL Regular: 9/23* = 39%
BUSTS: 5/23* = 22%

* For obvious reasons, I subtracted the 5 too soon to tell players from the total.

I'm a pretty big poker player, and I love turning over AA all in preflop versus an under pair (KK, QQ, JJ). In this situation, I'm approximately a 5-1 favourite to win the pot. These are the same odds Kevin Lowe will have on draft day to turn the Islander's pick into an NHL regular or better.

Here's to Kev's rockets holding up.

7 comments:

Slipper said...

Keith Ballard is going to be this summer's Zybnek Michalek. Maybe the fog will is dumb enough to part wwith one of those guys, because they'd be perfect players to acquire for the rebuild.

I think the Islanders' pick is trade bait. It may be high enough to be enticing to a team without a first or with a late one. Package it for a player who's already groomed to be a substance over style, impact NHL'er.

Vic Ferrari said...

I'm a bit less bullish on the value of draft picks than most on the net.

I mean if we look at Kobasew, the guy was drafted in the first round so probably got a million or so in signing bonus. His salary as soon as he hit the bigs was probably a million. The guy was a young player, no way in hell you want him out there against Forsberg types. Maybe in five years, but not at that stage of his career.

He never drove the PP results, he has been a minus player every year in the pros until this one (+4). He is earning $1.2 million.

That's a lot of money poured into the guy, and surely he's lost the Flames as many or more games than he's won them.

I mean if an NHL coach was heading into the playoffs this year and had the choice of one of: Bulis, Park, Whitney, Dvorak, Johnson. Do you think Kobasew gets picked over any of these guys? I don't.

I won't disagree that Kobasew qualifies as an NHL regular, it just seems to me that grabbing a guy like this with a first round pick doesn't represent very good value. Hell by the time a lot of these guys are really useful players, guys who make a positive difference ... they'll be earning decent coin and close to UFA status. And you've paid a lot in terms of on-ice results and cash.

I haven't done the sums on this or anything, but that's the way it looks to me.

If you grab a guy like Hemsky or Semin that's a home run. But you just might be better off striking out completely (Niinimaki) and spending next to nothing on the guy, plus getting an additional 2nd rounder in a future draft. Better than hitting a single or double methinks (guys in italics).

Hockey Amor said...

FYI, Jakub Klepis is not a bust, he's just 22 and was called up today by the Caps. He's a skilled playmaker with a shot at second line duty.

Scarlett said...

Come on Kinger....where's your Stanley Cup predictions? Time for an update!!!

Vic Ferrari said...

Where the hell have you gone, kinger?

kinger said...

Exams. I just finished my last one today.

Also, there isn't much to say about the Oil these days. I'm not really interested in the politics of the new arena, nor whether or not Kevin Lowe is talking out of both sides of his mouth in regards to his plan for the off season. I prefer to just wait it out and give my thoughts after the free agent signing period.

kinger said...

Oh, and I've been eating up what little free time I've had during exam period playing the World of Warcrack.

Sweet, sweet World of Warcrack.